What TouchPad's Fate Says About the Tablet Market
Given Apple's early iPad launch, only a well-executed, budget-priced, basic tablet backed by deep, committed pockets is likely to fare well—as in Amazon's likely entry
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I hit upon the issue of timing earlier this month in a GigaOM Pro article (subscription required) noting that Apple’s iPad was announced in January 2010 and that so far, no tablet has caught up to what Apple offers. Plenty of folks are happy with a Google (GOOG) Android Honeycomb tablet; fewer have purchased a BlackBerry (RIMM) Playbook. I’m not suggesting that Apple’s iPad is the best tablet for everyone. Consumers have different needs and preferences. From an overall sales perspective, though, no data dispute that Apple holds the tablet crown.
How else does timing affect the overall tablet market as well as HP’s decision to table the TouchPad?
• Consumers aren’t buying devices for potential. For most people, the iPad is the most complete tablet available. Why? Out of the box at launch it had strong third-party app support, as well as backward compatibility with phone apps, a media store, and an operating system interface that tens of millions were already used to. It took more than a year before the earliest tablet contenders appeared and they’re just now gaining certain key features: movie stores, for example, and stretch and zoom capabilities for phone apps. Consumers want a complete tablet experience, not one that’s “coming soon.”
• If tablets are the future, companies must commit for the long haul. HP’s $1.2 billion investment in webOS persuaded me that it was in the tablet race for the long haul. I defended the company’s move to sell the TouchPad at a discount and even bought one, only to find out days later that I was wrong: HP wasn’t selling the tablet at low prices to expand the user base quickly and help attract developers. HP apparently gave the TouchPad only a brief chance to gain an audience. When it didn’t do this at full price, the product’s plug was swiftly pulled. Research In Motion and the many Android tablet makers should take note. To compete with the iPad, they must be prepared to invest much time and money.
• When a product comes to market is nearly as important as the product itself. The tablet landscape might be very different if all the iPad competitors had arrived a year ago. I still believe, for example, that webOS offers a smart and effective user interface. Had HP been able to deliver the TouchPad last summer, it might have captured the No. 2 tablet spot by now. Instead, Apple’s iPad has the mindshare of developers, consumers, and enterprises. In lieu of viable tablet alternatives, Apple gained valuable market share. At this point, hardware makers are setting themselves up only for strict comparisons to iPads already in use.
• Timing is key to partner strategies. It’s easy to look back in hindsight. Clearly, HP should have lined up a hardware partner to license webOS before announcing the demise of the TouchPad. At this point, the lack of a hardware partner makes webOS software look like a dead product to many consumers and developers. The webOS asset looks like a liability: Who will take the chance to create hardware by licensing the platform now? Had a partner been announced first, the future of webOS on a tablet might show promise. Instead, it looks like a big risk that has already failed to pay off for two different companies—HP and Palm
FULL STORY AT http://www.businessweek.com/technology/what-touchpads-fate-says-about-the-tablet-market-08222011.html
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